Was This a Cooler Or Did I Just Mess Up Royally?
The author loses a big hand.
Today we’re going to try something a bit different: a poker hand analysis. I’m going to describe a hand and then ask my brother, who I consider to be one of the best poker players I know, to analyze it. Hopefully this will become a regular feature here at Dave Chen Poker.
In poker, a “cooler” is a hand where one player has a strong hand but loses to an even stronger hand. It’s generally considered very unlucky. So was the following a cooler? Or was I just a total moron? Let’s discuss.
Before I get into this, I have to explain two idioscyncrasies about poker at this particular room I play at:
By law in Washington state, no single bet in any poker can be larger than $300. So if you have more than $300 in your stack, you can’t go “all in.” You can raise $300 (for instance, if a player bets $50, you can raise to $350), but you can’t bet more than $300 on any given street. It really changes the nature of the game and as a result, larger stakes games can feel more like limit than no-limit.
There can be no more than 4 raises per “street” or round of betting. After that, it’s “capped,” meaning no one can raise any further.
Here’s the situation:
I’m playing at 1/3 no-limit. I have about $750 behind, making me one of the larger stacks at the table (max buy-in at this poker room is $300, so I’m doing relatively well). I pick up 33 on the big blind and I’m on the straddle for $7. A player to my left ($400 behind) raises to $15 and then a player on his left ($1000 behind) 3-bets to $35. Everyone else folds.
Typically I’d fold 33 to a 3-bet, but the amount is so low that I feel it’s worth it to try to hit a set. I call $35. The original raiser then 4-bets to $75. And the 3-bettor to his left attempts to shove “all-in” for $300 on top.
This is a critical moment. I throw my cards into the middle of the table face down. I’m not going to call that bet.
But then, something happens.
The dealer says: “You can’t raise $300. It was already capped at $75.” Everyone slowly realizes the significance of what he’s saying. 3-bettor can only call.
I ask sheepishly, “Can I take my cards back?” The dealer allows it, I think under the rationale that the action has changed. No one complains.
For just an additional $45, I can see the flop and potentially hit a set against two other people and win a big pot. How can I say no? I call.
We head 3-players to the flop, which comes: Q38 rainbow (all different suits). I’ve hit a set (also known as three of a kind), one of the best hands possible on this board. I check it and the second player checks to the 3-bettor, who (finally freed from his shackles) bets $300, the maximum. Really feels like he has pocket Aces, Kings, or maybe AK? And an outside possibility he has a set of Queens that’s better than my set?
At this point, I feel like I should’ve either raised or folded. But given that I had one of the best hands possible, I decided maybe I could just call and continue checking it down and this guy would keep betting into me. So I call his $300 bet. The other player folds. It’s now heads-up.
The turn comes and it’s a K. The board is now Q38K, with no flush draws. The King is an extremely dangerous card. It’s extremely possible this player has pocket kings, meaning he’d have a set that beat mine.
I check it to the villain and he moves in for $300 again. At this point, I only have a little over $400 behind. It’s time for me to move all in or fold. And perhaps extremely stupidly, I moved all in. My opponent calls.
I ask him: “Do you have a set?”
He seems shocked by the possibility. “No,” he mutters quietly.
The river comes. It’s an Ace.
My opponent flips over his cards. He has AA. It’s set over set, his aces over my 3’s. My opponent has hit a 2-outer on the river to beat me for my entire stack. I start to feel light-headed.
And as he realizes what’s happened and how extraordinarily lucky he has been, he whispers, “Now I have a set.”
Michael’s Analysis
Preflop: A clear fold on the first action. You have 33 out of position and you’re not closing the action. You should be worried about exactly what happened: one or both of the players reraising again and you having to fold your $35. As-played (after you’ve called and been raised), calling the additional $40 and closing the action once you’re capped to a 4-bet is a no-brainer.
Flop: Calling is probably best. I’m very surprised to read you were considering a fold. You got exactly what you wanted: a set on an extremely dry board. QQ is the only possible hand that could’ve played this way and is beating you. You are ahead of AA, KK, AQ (unlikely), and AK (very very unlikely). Folding would be massively negative EV. There’s an argument to be made for raising — this guy clearly overvalues top pair/overpair hands, and would be extremely unlikely to fold. You’d fold out very unlikely AK’s, but everything in his value range would probably continue and you could get it in on the turn. Calling is probably slightly better to keep in AK or any other random bluffs (again, probably almost 0 of these at these stakes, so calling/raising are close IMO), plus the board is extremely dry so there are very few scare cards that could come. Maybe the board pairing, or a straight card. I’d say the decision is read-dependent but I lean towards a call.
Turn: You have to call even though the K sucks. Too much in the pot to consider folding.
Sorry about the cooler.
I think this is in the cooler category. The guy who wanted to make it 300 has enough in his stack to make it worth it to try and hit a set against a big over pair. Once you hit the set on a fairly dry flop the hand kind of plays itself. What did Michael mean by scared of the board pairing on the turn though? In this situation I don't see how it would change the math.