How to Talk Yourself Out of $90,200

Reviewing one of the great folds in poker history.

This poker hand from Poker Go’s High Stakes Poker recently came to my attention (FYI: It’s 3 years old).

The hand features Phil Hellmuth, Doug Polk, and James Bord. The effective stack size is Hellmuth’s ~$97K. Hellmuth has QTo and raises it to $1,100 pre-flop. James Bord calls with 22 and Doug Polk also calls with T7o (probably a bit of a light call, but in position maybe it’s not so bad?). They go three-ways to a flop with $3,900 in the pot.

The flop comes J98 with two spades, giving Hellmuth a straight (the nuts) and Polk a slightly lower straight (the second nuts).

Hellmuth checks it to Bord who bets $2,000. Polk raises to $7,000 and Hellmuth jams all-in for an additional $90,200. Bord folds, leaving Polk to decide whether he wants to put in additional $90,200 and call Hellmuth’s massive bet. In concept, I don’t think a re-raise by Hellmuth is unreasonable, but jamming $90,200 into a pot that’s only ~$13,000 means you’re really limiting the types of hands that are going to call you (competing straights and maybe sets or flush draws? If that?). That said, with two other players, it’s understandable Hellmuth would want to fold out as much equity as possible.

The most interesting part of the hand comes from the table talk. Here’s a transcript, as best as I can re-create it:

Polk: Phil, I’m considering making a very big lay down here. Very, very big laydown.

Hellmuth: I mean, I could easily have, y’know?

Polk: What could you easily have?

Hellmuth: I don’t know.

Polk: You just bet a lot into very little.

Hellmuth: I could have a set.

Polk: Could you have a set? I don’t think you’d have a set here. C’mon Phil, you’re better than that.

Hellmuth: I could have the blockers? Two 10’s?

Polk: Oh, now you’re busting out blockers? God, if I fold this and I’m wrong, oh my fucking lord.

Hellmuth: I could have the Ace-Ten of spades?

Polk: I think I’m going to fold. I mean, I think I’m either dead — and I think I’m dead a lot given this — or you just have a ton of equity against me. So like, I think I can just…God, wow, this is going to look so dumb…This is completely absurd. He has to get through [Bord] and then he has to get through me. No, this is just a fold.

Credit where it’s due: Polk’s laydown is epic. This is one of the best laydowns I think I’ve ever witnessed. It takes a true professional to know when you’re beat, even when you have the second best hand possible.

But it also feels pretty likely that if Hellmuth had kept his mouth shut, Polk would have called. Hellmuth’s table talk is ridiculously unconvincing. It’s clear he’s just grasping at straws. I actually think table talk in this situation might’ve been effective, but you have to be thoughtful about it. Hellmuth was taking a random stab and didn’t think through the full implications of what he was saying. The result was Polk ended up convinced that Hellmuth had the nuts or something close enough to it that it merited a fold.

One of the most important concepts in poker is the following: Does your bet (or bluff) tell a plausible story? In other words: Would a person that has the hand you’re trying to represent play that hand in the same way? What’s clear from this video is that sometimes you have the opportunity to literally tell a plausible story to your opponent. And if you don’t have one, it’s probably best to just keep your mouth shut.